OK, so Australia are in disarray. They have lost all but one of their tests this year, the players are disillusioned in the coach, and attendances are collapsing. On top of that they have just hopped off a plane from Japan and now have to pitch up at Twickenham. So all England have to do is sing the anthem and a win is assured right? Except that… except that we just don’t know how good (or bad) this England team is. There is simply no reference point, no form guide. Moreover, we don’t really know what tactics or game plane England have. I am still not convinced by Mike Ford and John Wells as coaches but hey, before we even consider England, let’s not underestimate Australia shall we? Yes they might have lost matches this year, but those were against New Zealand and South Africa. How many games do you think England would win if they played six tests against those two?
Yes they might have injuries to key players, but Giteau, Elsom, Smith and Ashley-Cooper are world class and in Will Genia they seem to have found another livewire scrumhalf.
Against New Zealand last week I thought they were unlucky. New Zealand got away with daylight robbery at the breakdown (again). Time and again the ball was turned over (mostly illegally) when Australia seemed set to unleash an attack in a dangerous position. England have nowhere near the nouse at the breakdown that New Zealand possess.
Also, they might come here tired, but they come battle hardened. And let’s not underestimate the motivation factor that beating the Poms at Twickers will give them.
So can England stack up? Well, ironically, for once England’s backs look more potent than their forwards. The back three are all potent, the centre pairing looks to have good balance and at half back, a rejuvenated Jonny Wilkinson could be the difference between winning and losing. The pressure on him to perform must be immense, but at the very least you know he will kick the goals to keep England in the hunt and build confidence in those around him.
It is the front five that worries me. It looks like a Saxons selection. Borthwick is Borthwick. He is Jonno’s man. Credit must go to him for how he handles himself. Maybe it is time to get behind him. Louis Deacon does not add a lot for me. David Wilson is a great prospect at prop but will he be a destroyer? I must confess I do not know what Steve Thompson’s form is like at Brive, will he be the dynamo of 2001-2003 or the dumpling of 2004-2006? Tim Payne will do a job but he is no Sheridan.
The back row should be efficient. Lewis Moody will hare around like a nut case all day, Tom Croft will win lineouts, run fast and look good, Jordan Crane will crash and carry, but do they have the cunning to stop George Smith? That is the key question, and on the answer will hinge the outcome of the match.
Too close to call. My heart says England, my head says Australia.
November 7, 2009...9:19 am
Can England Beat the Wallabies today?
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