England could finish anywhere.

With a whole big pot of luck, they could win it.

With an average run of luck and injuries, they could finish somewhere between third and fifth.

With a poor run, they could conceivably finish last.

Wales, Ireland and France have all got to be favourites in their clashes against England, regardless of location – on recent form, they have to be.

The Scots are almost resurgent under Andy Robinson – a man who knows all too well the stale England gameplan and the inept team of coaches.

Even Italy are a team who must surely one day claim the scalp of this once great team.

Three or four defeats out of five is by no means out of the question.

SO, only three years early, here is the draw for the 2011 Rugby Union World Cup:

Pool A – New Zealand, France, Tonga, Americas 1, Asia 1

Pool B – Argentina, England, Scotland, Europe 1, play-off winner

Pool C – Australia, Ireland, Italy, Europe 2, Americas 2

Pool D – South Africa, Wales, Fiji, Oceania 1, Africa 1

Now, on the surface that looks fine and dandy for England, escaping having to face one of the Tri-Nations teams after the dismal Autumn annihilation. I think it is a bit tricky. Very bad luck to draw Scotland, one of the third-tier nations. The Scots always, always raise their game against the old enemy. They will be targeting their pool match against England  from this point onwards.  Argentina might actually be the softer of the two games. I always thought they were slightly overrated last year, despite their third place World Cup finish. If I was a betting man I would predict their fortunes taking a downward trajectory in the next three years. Let’s hope England’s fortunes improve as failing to top the pool would see almost certain 1/4 final elimination at the hands of probably New Zealand.

The All Blacks are probably relieved to see their nemisis France in Pool A. New Zealand have a much better chance of beating them here, and a loss is not as catastrophic as the two previous semi-final upsets.

Elsewhere Wales must be distraught to see their own nemisis, Fiji, alongside Cup holders South Africa. Ireland must fancy their chances of getting past Australia and Italy. The lack of depth in the game makes it unlikely that any of the other third-tier nations or qualifiers will make it out of the Pool stages.

As another new English Premiership season of attrition, aggression and (hopefully) ambition dawns with new coaches, new players and another Jonny Wilkinson injury dragging on, what is on the wish list for the coming term? Here is what I would like to see happen and also my predictions for the trophies.

ELVs – so much has been said and written about them that further discussion is almost pointless. Putting aside the farcical way they have been introduced, they are here for the season so let’s see what happens. I hope they don’t spoil the game. Clever coaches will have worked out how to use them. Gloucester will love them, Leicester will hate them, Wasps will push them to the limit.

England – I really worry for Jonno. With all due respect, the best that can come from the Pacific Islands match is no major injuries. If he were to lose 0-3 against the Tri-Nations teams he would be in a difficult spot. England must win at least one of the matches and must front up against New Zealand. Hopefully he will engender some backbone and standards in a team that went totally AWOL on and off the pitch in New Zealand, but unless a world-class lock appears from somewhere and one of the coaches can sort a decent centre combination, I am not overly hopeful. Oh, and Rob Andrew, can’t you just resign? Your attack on Clive Woodward showed just how weasel-like you really are.

James Simpson-Daniel – Please stay injury free and please nail down a place in the England back line. Somewhere, anywhere!

Danny Cipriani – Please come back as fast and as good as you were before your ankle went and did that “funny angle” thing.

TV – Can Sky please stop moving the scheduling of the Rugby Club all over the place? Give it a settled slot and keep it there. That aside, Sky do an excellent job. Oh and I can’t wait for Moore and Butler to resume their double act in the 6N.

Premiership – Some team other than Wasps to grasp the concept of the play-offs.

And so to predictions:

Premiership – Gloucester (I think they might finally do it)

Anglo-Welsh – Saracens

Heineken – Clermont

6N – France (although hopefully by then Jonno might have worked some magic!)

Autumn Internationals:

PI – England

Aus – England (please God, this is the match I want to see us win)

SA – England (Putting aside the recent thrashing of Oz, the Boks are having England-like post World Cup problems)

NZ – New Zealand

Before the 6N started one of the more popular rugby forums was running a thread titled, “Your tournament hopes and fears”. It asked fans to state their ideal tournament, and their nightmare scenario.
My ideal realistic outcome was to lose no more than one match and to finish no worse than second. My nightmare scenario was to lose to Wales in the opener then to lose possibly two more matches, finishing fourth or even fifth.
As the 2008 championship now recedes already rapidly behind us, aspects of my worst and best scenarios both came to pass. We did lose to Wales, but we did come second. A curate’s egg then. Well, more like a curate’s battery egg farm actually.
The fact that England managed to sneak into the runners up spot is astonishing and frankly an indictment of the rest of the teams (Wales apart). It will no doubt be used by the urbane Mr. Andrew as evidence that England are “improving”, “moving to where we want to be”, “beginning to play the type of rugby we are know we are capable of” or some such. Any such cant however should be challenged in the strongest terms as if it is used to justify the status quo then it is the worst result possible for England.
What seems obvious is that things cannot remain as they are. The rumours of dressing room unrest are again surfacing and the knives are now well and truly out for Mr. Ashton and, in some quarters, Mr. Andrew. If Ashton et al survive the post 6N “review” (Mr. Andrew does seem fond of these exhaustive reviews doesn’t he?) they would surely not survive two 60 point maulings by New Zealand in June.
So how did England lurch from disaster to triumph back to disaster then to their best finish since 2003?
Wales (Lost 19-26)
Disaster. Total. Comfortable if not secure at half time, mashed at full time. I did not think Wales played that badly, or England that well, in the first half. One more score would probably have killed the game off. But England could not find that score. Disappointing injuries to the sick notes Moody and Strettle (as well as the nearly man that never was Rees) certainly unsettled England. Given that you would have thought 10-man rugby in the second half was the order of the day, whose brainwave was it to put Kay in the back row and then run everything from everywhere? Where was the direction from the coaches? Where was the leadership from key players? Unbelievable. Glad I did not buy tickets to this one.

Italy (Won 19-23)
Appalling again. One bit of flukey skill for Sackey’s try and that was it. Italy should have won and would have won if they possessed a half decent halfback. Worrying times.

France (Won 13-24)
World Cup semi final revisited. England revert to type and go large on defence and decent forward play. And France commit rugby suicide. Seriously, someone should tell Lievremont that the great French teams of the past had abundant running flair but they also had some of the nastiest, most physical forwards ever to play the game. One moment near the end summed it up for me. Five minutes left, France field a kick in their 22. Surely they will kick downfield as far as they can to get position? No, they run it, knock on and cede possession from which England score the clinching try! I was strangely muted after this game. Happy yes, but not as delighted as the drunken fans around me. It was like getting a credit card to pay off an overdraft.

Scotland (Lost 15-9)
What can one say? The worst game I have ever seen England play. In 30 years. Not even the debacles in the mid 80s were this bad. Following as it did on the heels of Dannygate, this was a bitter pill to swallow. Ashton was now in siege mode. Lose to Ireland and he would be out on his a**e. Credit to Scotland though for again being our Achilles heel.

Ireland (Won 33-10)
Dom has reviewed this on this site. Not much to add. Danny showed the way forward ( and you gotta love his f*****g interview style!) but it was just too little too late and left you just so angry at what might have been. If we could play so poorly so often and still come second? What would we be like if we actually had a clue?
 

Firstly, no sour grapes, congratulations to Wales on a well deserved Grand Slam. Who would have thought just a few months ago when they bombed out of the World Cup to Fiji that here they would be having swept all in the 6N before them. Who would believe as well that they would have completed the feat twice in 4 years, compared to England’s shocking record in that period? In some ways this Slam was similar to the one in 2005, both started with victories over England and Wales growing in stature from that point, but this was vintage was a better achievement.

It could all have been so different had England not gone totally AWOL for twenty minutes in that first match, but ifs and buts feed the regrets of bitterness and England have nobody save themselves to blame. Perhaps seeing the achievements of the men in red will stir the men in white to greater deeds and the “old farts” in the RFU to action…. if only eh?

An occasional feature to honour that most undervalued  of rugby types, the tv commentator. This week hats off to Brian Moore who is becoming a must listen. Like or loathe him, you can’t ignore him. For me he ticks all the right boxes, and he winds up our celtic brethren. Forget Barnes and Harrison, you can’t top classics like this in the France v England 6N match:

Upon seeing Ian Balshaw swanning around at the back of a ruck near the halfway line:
“You’re a FULLBACK!”

In reponse to seeing Michael Lipman handle a restart that had not gone 10:
“DON’T TOUCH IT…Halfwit”

And commentary of the week, upon seeing substitued French hooker Dimitri Swarzeski in the crowd next to a comely blonde:
“He’s a very fortunate man indeed if that is his wife or girlfriend…tremendous!”

OddsChecker

Wales v Ireland – Currently no standout value in the market. I’m looking at Wales at about 6/4. Wales have shown more quality than Ireland in recent performances. With doubts over Dempsey and Murphy and with Gatland having a psychological advantage over O’Sullivan, I fancy Wales’ chances. But 6/4 doesn’t meet my criteria of value. I think it will be a close one though so the in-game betting might offer some chances. Ireland are definitely overvalued at 4/6.

England v Scotland – England should account for Scotland but as soon as you rule out Scotland, you’re in trouble. Bear in mind that this English team can only string together a performance for the first half at best. There’s no point looking for value in the English odds. Most of the markets are hovering at around 3s to 4s on a Scotland victory. Betfair are offering nearly 5/1 which might be worth a nibble. The Edinburgh weather forecast is for a fair day with a nip in the air. Look for value backing Scotland in in-game betting after England have a 3 to 5 point lead.

France vs Italy – France have only got the Championship to play for – how much motivation will that be. Lievremont keeps chopping and changing. Italy at 15/1 on Betfair (10/1 elsewhere) is tempting but with Mauro Bergamasco out, a surprise is probably beyond them.

First impressions of the performance are:

1. Steve Walsh blew the whistle early depriving us of another 26 seconds.

2. I do not believe that Wigglesworth and Lipman are long-term solutions.

3. I can’t believe that Nick Easter was RBS Man of the Match.

4. Sheridan’s power in the loose was noticeable.

 5. Wilkinson does not kick far enough out of hand anymore.

6. As mentioned previously, the Volcano was always going to be dangerous on the burst in midfield.

7. Balshaw is an arse.