Following on from Dom’s recent steller prediction performance (and his contribution below) I have decided to open myself to ridicule by offering my own predictions for the weekend. No doubt in the process proving why I don’t gamble and Dom does. And why I only write tripe on a blog as opposed to writing tripe and being handsomely paid for it (a la Barnesy…!)

Saracens v Leeds: Saracens are tootling along nicely and will surely inflict more pain on Neil Back’s beleagured drop favourites. South Afracens by 18.

OddsChecker

Wales v Ireland – Currently no standout value in the market. I’m looking at Wales at about 6/4. Wales have shown more quality than Ireland in recent performances. With doubts over Dempsey and Murphy and with Gatland having a psychological advantage over O’Sullivan, I fancy Wales’ chances. But 6/4 doesn’t meet my criteria of value. I think it will be a close one though so the in-game betting might offer some chances. Ireland are definitely overvalued at 4/6.

England v Scotland – England should account for Scotland but as soon as you rule out Scotland, you’re in trouble. Bear in mind that this English team can only string together a performance for the first half at best. There’s no point looking for value in the English odds. Most of the markets are hovering at around 3s to 4s on a Scotland victory. Betfair are offering nearly 5/1 which might be worth a nibble. The Edinburgh weather forecast is for a fair day with a nip in the air. Look for value backing Scotland in in-game betting after England have a 3 to 5 point lead.

France vs Italy – France have only got the Championship to play for – how much motivation will that be. Lievremont keeps chopping and changing. Italy at 15/1 on Betfair (10/1 elsewhere) is tempting but with Mauro Bergamasco out, a surprise is probably beyond them.

I’ve had a bit of success with my rugby bets recently - Argentina to beat France in the opening game of the World Cup, England to lose my more than 30 points in the pool match against South Africa, England to go out in the semi-finals or later, Argentina to beat France in the 3rd place play-off, and, most painfully of all, Wales to beat England at Twickenham in the Six Nations this year.

It’s my fervent belief that if you put aside your heart and if at the same time you can go against local market sentiment, that there are value bets to be had. If you trust your judgement and think you have more knowledge or better judgement than the market in general, then you should be on to a winner in the long term. This applies most to a true sporting event where the chance of outside influence and untrue participation is minimal.

The principle of the value bet is that the odds offered represent good value in relation to the true odds.

The important thing is that you don’t have to think that Wales will beat England at Twickenham but the odds of that happening should be shorter than the 5/1 that the market is offering.

If you are right then, IN THE LONG TERM, you should be up. Significantly so.

It’s also my fervent belief that sports such as rugby, cricket and, to a lesser extent, snooker see swings and roundabouts that enable you to take advantage of changing odds and further value bets such that you can often lay off and find yourself in a win-win position.

Take Ireland vs Italy in the first game of this year’s Six Nations. When Ireland were 10-0 up, I backed Italy at 80/1. It didn’t come off in the end but towards the end of the game when Italy were thrusting towards a winning try, those odds didn’t look so clever.

Anyway, this weekend, the 8/9/10 selection of France looks suspect. It may come off, it may not, but it should encourage us to look at the odds on England winning. However, on  Betfair, England are 5/2 to win already. Looking for the value bet,  wouldn’t touch that with a barge pole.

Italy are 6/1 to beat Wales – not terribly attractive. I took the starting price of 15/1 for Italy to beat Ireland (another that didn’t come off) but 6/1 against the form team in their back garden doesn’t seem unrealistic.

Of all the matches, Scotland look the most attractive at 5/1 to beat Ireland. I think Ireland have deep-rooted problems that aren’t going away until they bring in some fresh blood and ditch Eddie O’Sullivan. I think the French substitutions flattered Ireland in the second half of the last game. On the other hand, Scotland have been truly dreadful with their repeated forward driving wedge at first receiver. They’ve shown nothing to justify any optimism against Ireland. However, they must have a much better chance with Patterson at 10 rather than Dan Parks.

But at 5/1 that’s not value yet.

But it’s only Wednesday and the odds might change significantly between now and kick off.

So, no sight of a value bet yet.

But some of the best odds come with in-game betting after one side have scored.