England could finish anywhere.

With a whole big pot of luck, they could win it.

With an average run of luck and injuries, they could finish somewhere between third and fifth.

With a poor run, they could conceivably finish last.

Wales, Ireland and France have all got to be favourites in their clashes against England, regardless of location – on recent form, they have to be.

The Scots are almost resurgent under Andy Robinson – a man who knows all too well the stale England gameplan and the inept team of coaches.

Even Italy are a team who must surely one day claim the scalp of this once great team.

Three or four defeats out of five is by no means out of the question.

SO, only three years early, here is the draw for the 2011 Rugby Union World Cup:

Pool A – New Zealand, France, Tonga, Americas 1, Asia 1

Pool B – Argentina, England, Scotland, Europe 1, play-off winner

Pool C – Australia, Ireland, Italy, Europe 2, Americas 2

Pool D – South Africa, Wales, Fiji, Oceania 1, Africa 1

Now, on the surface that looks fine and dandy for England, escaping having to face one of the Tri-Nations teams after the dismal Autumn annihilation. I think it is a bit tricky. Very bad luck to draw Scotland, one of the third-tier nations. The Scots always, always raise their game against the old enemy. They will be targeting their pool match against England  from this point onwards.  Argentina might actually be the softer of the two games. I always thought they were slightly overrated last year, despite their third place World Cup finish. If I was a betting man I would predict their fortunes taking a downward trajectory in the next three years. Let’s hope England’s fortunes improve as failing to top the pool would see almost certain 1/4 final elimination at the hands of probably New Zealand.

The All Blacks are probably relieved to see their nemisis France in Pool A. New Zealand have a much better chance of beating them here, and a loss is not as catastrophic as the two previous semi-final upsets.

Elsewhere Wales must be distraught to see their own nemisis, Fiji, alongside Cup holders South Africa. Ireland must fancy their chances of getting past Australia and Italy. The lack of depth in the game makes it unlikely that any of the other third-tier nations or qualifiers will make it out of the Pool stages.

Before the 6N started one of the more popular rugby forums was running a thread titled, “Your tournament hopes and fears”. It asked fans to state their ideal tournament, and their nightmare scenario.
My ideal realistic outcome was to lose no more than one match and to finish no worse than second. My nightmare scenario was to lose to Wales in the opener then to lose possibly two more matches, finishing fourth or even fifth.
As the 2008 championship now recedes already rapidly behind us, aspects of my worst and best scenarios both came to pass. We did lose to Wales, but we did come second. A curate’s egg then. Well, more like a curate’s battery egg farm actually.
The fact that England managed to sneak into the runners up spot is astonishing and frankly an indictment of the rest of the teams (Wales apart). It will no doubt be used by the urbane Mr. Andrew as evidence that England are “improving”, “moving to where we want to be”, “beginning to play the type of rugby we are know we are capable of” or some such. Any such cant however should be challenged in the strongest terms as if it is used to justify the status quo then it is the worst result possible for England.
What seems obvious is that things cannot remain as they are. The rumours of dressing room unrest are again surfacing and the knives are now well and truly out for Mr. Ashton and, in some quarters, Mr. Andrew. If Ashton et al survive the post 6N “review” (Mr. Andrew does seem fond of these exhaustive reviews doesn’t he?) they would surely not survive two 60 point maulings by New Zealand in June.
So how did England lurch from disaster to triumph back to disaster then to their best finish since 2003?
Wales (Lost 19-26)
Disaster. Total. Comfortable if not secure at half time, mashed at full time. I did not think Wales played that badly, or England that well, in the first half. One more score would probably have killed the game off. But England could not find that score. Disappointing injuries to the sick notes Moody and Strettle (as well as the nearly man that never was Rees) certainly unsettled England. Given that you would have thought 10-man rugby in the second half was the order of the day, whose brainwave was it to put Kay in the back row and then run everything from everywhere? Where was the direction from the coaches? Where was the leadership from key players? Unbelievable. Glad I did not buy tickets to this one.

Italy (Won 19-23)
Appalling again. One bit of flukey skill for Sackey’s try and that was it. Italy should have won and would have won if they possessed a half decent halfback. Worrying times.

France (Won 13-24)
World Cup semi final revisited. England revert to type and go large on defence and decent forward play. And France commit rugby suicide. Seriously, someone should tell Lievremont that the great French teams of the past had abundant running flair but they also had some of the nastiest, most physical forwards ever to play the game. One moment near the end summed it up for me. Five minutes left, France field a kick in their 22. Surely they will kick downfield as far as they can to get position? No, they run it, knock on and cede possession from which England score the clinching try! I was strangely muted after this game. Happy yes, but not as delighted as the drunken fans around me. It was like getting a credit card to pay off an overdraft.

Scotland (Lost 15-9)
What can one say? The worst game I have ever seen England play. In 30 years. Not even the debacles in the mid 80s were this bad. Following as it did on the heels of Dannygate, this was a bitter pill to swallow. Ashton was now in siege mode. Lose to Ireland and he would be out on his a**e. Credit to Scotland though for again being our Achilles heel.

Ireland (Won 33-10)
Dom has reviewed this on this site. Not much to add. Danny showed the way forward ( and you gotta love his f*****g interview style!) but it was just too little too late and left you just so angry at what might have been. If we could play so poorly so often and still come second? What would we be like if we actually had a clue?
 

In many ways, this was a strange game.

Ireland came out of the blocks like greyhounds, racking up ten unanswered points before taking their foot completely off the gas. It was almost as if they realised that a thumping victory would extend Eddie O’Sullivan’s reign so they showed what they could do if they wanted to and then showed that today they didn’t in fact want to. And after that they were never in the game.

On the other hand, having gone ten points down in the blink of an eye, England refused to panic, got themselves back in the game, took control and never looked like giving it up.

There’s no doubt that Cipriani took to the stewardship of an international XV like a duck to water. Playing a lot flatter than is Wilkinson’s wont, Cipriani buzzed and threatened. His kicking from hand had a welcome length to it compared to the much, much shorter range of Wilkinson. For sure he will have off days ahead, for now Cipriani seized the day, threatening the gain line and bringing the backs into play with some long-awaited first phase moves.

Undoubtedly, Ireland struggled with the early loss of Leamy before the quarter-hour, followed by Murphy just after the half-hour but Reddan did not offer his usual threat around the fringes and the captain O’Gara had one of his off-days. The Irish livewires Bowe, Kearney and Fitzgerald impressed with their hustling and bustling but failed to make the required breakthroughs.

Cipriani and Noon were the pick of the backs. The new boy was given a smooth ride by his forwards who delivered a solid platform missing against Scotland. Flood has a solid game without leaving much to remember. Noon was a threat in defence and attack. Sackey oozed menace with the two strings to his bow – pace and the step inside. Coming off his wing and into midfield, Vainikolo held the defence providing space to those outside him but he looked short of the extra gears required for the pace men. Balshaw threatened his usual mix of blunder and laxadasical speed.

For the first time this season, Wigglesworth offered genuine glimpses of why he is not England’s future at scrum half and must be looking nervously over his shoulder at the rapid rehabilitation of Harry Ellis and the continued apprenticeship of Danny Care.

In the forwards, Andrew Sheridan was quietly solid. Vickery was his usual plodding general self – his dynamic days now a distant memory. Apart from a few bursts around the field, Lee Mears failed to convince. The nagging doubt is that he is just too small for an international hooker these days and his scrummaging and throwing-in lack a little something. Shaw and Borthwick were solid but the latter needs to learn more from his second-row colleague in putting himself around the park in the loose. In the backrow, Easter continued to look like the strong workhorse required, able to gain the hard yards and to stay on his feet and hold the ball up when outnumbered. Tom Croft continued to catch the eye in the lineout but was less obviously effective as a number six at the breakdown (if the effectiveness of a number six can ever be described as obvious). At openside, Lipman was prominent in the loose, without being convincing as the link man between forwards and backs, or the ball-winning scavenger at the breakdown.

The fear that a victory in this game would just paper over the obvious cracks in Ashton’s coaching team, Rob Andrew’s role and the establishment at the RFU is realised. According to the BBC:


Brian Ashton says he has 'no idea' whether he will remain as England head coach despite leading them to their best Six Nations finish snce 2003.
</codeEngland's final position in the table is both misleading and irrelevant. England clawed their way to second by dint of a highly unconvincing win over Italy, an effective forward performance with limited ambition against France, with only final flurry against Ireland showing any sort of hope for the style of future games. Andrew is not planning any changes before the tour to New Zealand but what is the point of sending a dead man walking down under other than protecting the new man from a baptisim of fire. If Shaun Edwards is committed to Wales until 2010 then there really is no point in getting rid of Ashton for another two seasons. There is little evidence that the other commanders-in-waiting of Ryan and Richards would be able to flourish under Andrew's strange generalship. If Edwards is unavailable then why not continue with the stagnant status quo albeit providing a manager to relieve Ashton of the duties he struggles with and enabling him to concentrate on the stuff that matters?

Cipriani in – hurrah! Wilkinson the only change – boo!

What can we say? Ashton has left enough rope to hang himself. It’s clear to me that he’s as clueless at selection as his predecessor Andy Robinson was. What is required is a fresh start, a clean sweep and a game plan that has ambition outside numbers 1-10.

What this says is that the forwards just had another one of their off days in Murraryfield and that they are expected to make an angry comeback and strangle the life out of the game against the Irish. Another suffocating performance similar to the victory against France and the major pundits will be convinced that all is ok in the house of Ashton.

A large number of both sets of fans will deep down be hoping for a loss to see the back of their respective coaching teams.

Will England’s forwards be able to munch the Irish? A lot depends on Andrew Sheridan’s haircut. It was obviously too long against Scotland. If he comes out with a nasty grade 0 round the sides on Saturday then perhaps not even Paul O’Connell will be able to stop him.

Anyway, team news:

15 Iain Balshaw (Gloucester Rugby)
14 Paul Sackey (London Wasps)
13 Jamie Noon (Newcastle Falcons)
12 Toby Flood (Newcastle Falcons)
11 Lesley Vainikolo (Gloucester Rugby)
10 Danny Cipriani (London Wasps)
9 Richard Wigglesworth (Sale Sharks)
1 Andrew Sheridan (Sale Sharks)
2 Lee Mears (Bath Rugby)
3 Phil Vickery (London Wasps, captain)
4 Simon Shaw (London Wasps)
5 Steve Borthwick (Bath Rugby)
6 Tom Croft (Leicester Tigers)
7 Michael Lipman (Bath Rugby)
8 Nick Easter (Harlequins)

Replacements:
16 George Chuter (Leicester Tigers)
17 Matt Stevens (Bath Rugby)
18 Ben Kay (Leicester Tigers)
19 James Haskell (London Wasps)
20 Paul Hodgson (London Irish)
21 Jonny Wilkinson (Newcastle Falcons)
22 Mathew Tait (Newcastle Falcons)

OddsChecker

Wales v Ireland – Currently no standout value in the market. I’m looking at Wales at about 6/4. Wales have shown more quality than Ireland in recent performances. With doubts over Dempsey and Murphy and with Gatland having a psychological advantage over O’Sullivan, I fancy Wales’ chances. But 6/4 doesn’t meet my criteria of value. I think it will be a close one though so the in-game betting might offer some chances. Ireland are definitely overvalued at 4/6.

England v Scotland – England should account for Scotland but as soon as you rule out Scotland, you’re in trouble. Bear in mind that this English team can only string together a performance for the first half at best. There’s no point looking for value in the English odds. Most of the markets are hovering at around 3s to 4s on a Scotland victory. Betfair are offering nearly 5/1 which might be worth a nibble. The Edinburgh weather forecast is for a fair day with a nip in the air. Look for value backing Scotland in in-game betting after England have a 3 to 5 point lead.

France vs Italy – France have only got the Championship to play for – how much motivation will that be. Lievremont keeps chopping and changing. Italy at 15/1 on Betfair (10/1 elsewhere) is tempting but with Mauro Bergamasco out, a surprise is probably beyond them.