Sadly, as predicted on these pages:
I think however that we will see a fairly routine victory for New Zealand by 12-15 points. I expect England to stay in touch for fifty or so minutes before the superior class of the All Blacks sees them pull away without really getting out of third gear.
Time needed for a full assessment but this was a very dreary, very poor performance.

New Zealand. Land of One Tree Hill, lamb, Russel Crowe and of course, the incomparable New Zealand All Black rugby team. Now, if there is one team that a fragile England do not want to face, it is New Zealand. If it was France pitching up tomorrow I would be certain of a home win, such is England’s capacity to upset the French against the odds. But New Zealand? Forget it. Whilst England have at some time managed to hold dominance over all other nations, they have never managed it against New Zealand. Even at their 2002-2003 peak, England could muster only only two narrow victories against the All Blacks. This England team are far from any kind of peak. The stats don’t lie. England have never beaten New Zealand in a World Cup match, their win ratio against New Zealand is less than 19%, over the last 10 tests between the two sides the aggregate points score is England 138 – New Zealand 290. Ouch. Yes, England are truly New Zealand’s bitch. Why? Are New Zealand just inherantly better than England? What makes them so hard for us to beat? I think partly it is because we just don’t play them enough, and when England do play them, they don’t just play the team, they play the myth, the aura. Deep down they don’t believe they can win. Can this change tomorrow? Well, there is some crumb of comfort for England that this All Blacks team are not vintage, but they are still capable of putting 30+ points on the red rose. After a week of stinging criticism of coaches and players, there is no doubt that Martin Johnson will have put a rocket under his troops. I hope so, because if the management cannot get the team up for this match then we might as well turn out the lights at Twickenham. There is also no doubt that the recalled Joe Worsley will bolster England’s defence. Worsley is a tackling machine. Just as well because he will be doing a lot of it once that funny dance is over. Simon Shaw will bring much needed aggression, bulk and ball carrying to the front five and so the pack does not look too bad. It is sad though that Tom Croft is demoted to the bench. England’s blindside was poorly defended against Argentina, but the coaches must find a way to integrate Croft’s talents into the side. If they don’t it is another black mark against them. It is in the backs and as usual, the gameplan, that England look in trouble. Surely the tactic of using Erinle as a battering ram will not work against a team of New Zealand’s calibre? But how can England give themselves a chance? Well, the cardinal rules against New Zealand are:
1) Do not kick aimlessly to their back three
2) Do not give away cheap turnovers
3) Do not kick aimlessly to their back three
There is no team on the planet better adept at converting turnovers or punishing poor kicks. No problem then, seeing as Wilkinson is kicking so well from hand and Erinle is reknowned for his boot… If England kick, they have to make sure either they make touch, or the chase is organised, fast and frantic. The breakdown is the other area where New Zealand regularly slay England. The All Blacks are past masters at slowing down and killing down opposition ball. Call it cheating, call it being smart, they just know how to bend the rules and get away with it. It is no coincidence that it is in matches where a ref reins New Zealand in at the breakdown that they struggle. So, England have to make sure that when a player goes into contact, there is a team mate there immediately to help them. They have to make sure that players hit rucks with the ferocity of the damned to clear out All Black poachers. If they do this then maybe they can get to the hour mark and still be in touch. If so, then pressure will mount on Graham Henry’s men. It is all a tall order, and one that I feel is simply beyond this combined current England setup. There is a worry that if New Zealand start well that the wheels could seriously come off the chariot and we could be in for humilation. I think however that we will see a fairly routine victory for New Zealand by 12-15 points. I expect England to stay in touch for fifty or so minutes before the superior class of the All Blacks sees them pull away without really getting out of third gear. Oh, and that man Carter to score a try.

The pressure on the England coaching regime is getting serious. England legend Josh Lewsey has waded in with a scathing attack to match his famous Matt Rogers tackle: “Mike Ford didn’t win anything, while John Wells never played international rugby. Wells’s achievements as a coach are terrible – what justifies these people keeping their jobs?”
What indeed. The coaches meanwhile have hit back. Brian Smith says there is no problem between his ideas and those of John Wells: “We’re a united ship on a common path. There are no issues there whatsoever.”
Really Brian? You sound like a bit like the lookout on the Titanic. Jonno must shoulder a lot of the blame for this worsening fiasco. He agreed to this coaching team. Meanwhile, supremo Rob Andrew is silent, although apparently he will be holding another of his famous reviews at the end of this misguided campaign. Watch out Jonno, the head man might be expendable but the trusty Lieutenents are bullet proof!

After the latest team announcement, all I now need is for the RFU to sell the naming rights to Twickenham and my misery will be complete.

“And a warm welcome this afternoon to the Nike Rugby @ Twickenham Stadium to watch England vs the All Blacks.”

The selection of Erinle at inside centre guarantees that, apart from a couple of inside passes to Cueto hitting the line from fullback, the ball is going to get to 12 and no further.

To be fair, despite Geraghty at 12, in the past couple of games the ball wasn’t exactly being fired out wide but here is England’s colours nailed firmly to the flagpole.

Where are the game breakers?

We have the cutlasses but wherefore art the rapiers?

Not to mention Richie McCaw and the rest of the All Black backrow who are going to have a field day playing against three blindsides.

P.S. In light of RWC 2011, are we going to gain more from Shaw playing who will be 38 then or might giving Courteney Lawes some game time have been a more prudent forward-looking policy?

On Friday and Saturday, I was having some doubts about not going.

On Sunday, boy was I pleased that I hadn’t wasted my money on that drivel.

What is so completely wrong with the setup that the same problems which beset Andy Robinson and Brian Ashton can continue to afflict the supposed clean start of Martin Johnson?

We may have an uneviable list of injuries but at the same time England are the best funded rugby country on the planet with the largest playing base.

But whilst the names filling jerseys 1-8 looked a bit shallow, there was nothing wrong with the depth of talent starting at 9 to 15.

For a backline with those names to not even threaten to score is unforgivable. The lines, the moves, where where they?

For years, the threats from the back three of any of these Southern Hemisphere sides should be a nagging deterrent to anyone thinking about kicking away possession, and yet England continue to kick away, and poorly at that, anything less than pristine position. Then when they get good ball, the forward plod away in the Leicester way as has been their wont for the past four years.

The kicking of the Callard years pales in comparison to the smarter play of the Dave Alred era.

Surely, surely, surely, the finger of suspicion has to point at John Wells, Mike Ford and Jon Callard. For too long, Wells and Ford particularly have survived whilst the figureheads have rolled.

The game next week against Argentina threatens not only to be the shit between the sandwich of big name defeats but a dour game of unambition at the same time.

Whatever happens, England aren’t going to go down in a blaze of glory that’s for sure.

What a shame it now seems that Ashton and Johnson weren’t brought together whilst Ford and Wells were sacrificed….

Where now for English rugby?

From Saturday’s game, starting places for Haskell, Hartley and Lawes might inject some much needed dynamism but the backs and the backs coach, Brian Smith, need to start delivering. Teams need to fear that gifting possession to this set of runners in any part of the field could leave them grasping at shadows.

Show some ambition or a generation of players will be wasted and a generation of fans will be lost.

For the first 10 minutes of yesterday’s match, it was as if we had been set into a time machine, back six years. Here was Jonny Wilkinson, dropping a goal, kicking a penalty, ticking the scoreboard over, giving England an early lead, a lead from which they would press on and suffocate the opposition. But then, Jonny lined up a long range penalty from over halfway. This for 9-0. It sets sail, its on target! It hits the post. It misses. Suddenly, the spell is broken. We wake up. Australia wake up. They realise they are not playing England of 2003, but of 2009. Safe in that knowledge, they go down the field and score a try. They then dominate the entire second half and win comfortably, despite blowing at least three “open goal” try chances. And we England fans are left to scratch our heads and wonder just what the result means, and just where it leaves us. Was it a reasonable effort from a hastily assembled side and something to build on? Or was it a muddled catastrophe to rank alongside something from the Andy Robinson era? At first I thought it the former, but after watching the match again, I am leaning towards the latter.
Aside from the first 15 minutes, when England ruled the lineout, bossed the breakdown and had something like 65% possession, it was all Australia. England’s front five faded visibly with every minute the match went on, and hence there was no platform for the backs. If not for the heroic tackling of Moody and Wilkinson, the score would have been embarrassing.
England looked absolutely impotent in attack. Not once did we look like scoring a try. Not once. Australia on the other hand looked like arch wizards every time they had ball in hand.
Shane Geraghty had a shocking match. I think he deserves another go but I am now starting to fear that he is cut from the same cloth as Charlie Hodgson and that the biggest stage is a step too far for him. Matt Banahan looked totally lost and was unable to impose his size on proceedings, one tap back from a cross kick apart, and Ugo Monye had one of those games that make you think that maybe he is just someone very fit and very fast, but not actually any good at rugby.
Perhaps it is unfair to be harsh on these guys though, when in truth they had almost no quality ball to work with. The lack of snap and continuity from the forwards just heightens the doubts about John Wells as forwards coach. These doubts are now starting to be raised ever more loudly in the press, and for the first time, a major journalist has said that Martin Johnson should go. Over the top criticism? Maybe, but it is nothing compared to what will happen if England lose to the Pumas next week then ship another 30-40 points to the All Blacks the week after that. It is as if Andy Robinson/Brian Ashton had never left. Players have come and gone, Jonno might find to his cost that head coaches have as well, but somehow the Mike Ford/John Wells duo survive.
Perhaps we just have to accept what England are, a second division team fuelled by past glories to unrealistic expectations. And yet is it unrealistic to expect progress and competitiveness from the best funded team on the planet? There lies the problem for Jonno and the mysterious Rob Andrew. All the plans of the EPS, the acadamies, the long form agreement, mean nothing if the end result is clueless defeat like yesterday.

One of the sub-plots of yesterday’s clash between London Irish and Leicester was the battle of the open sides. The old nutter Lewis Moody versus the young wrecking ball Steffon Armitage. One of them is almost certain to line up for England against Australia in two weeks time, so who is the best bet to fill the troublesome 7 jersey? This is a position that England have not really filled since Neil Back retired. Partly it has to be said, because Moody himself has been second only to Jonny Wilkinson in the “always injured” stakes. Moody in his prime was as good a backrow player as England has seen. Let’s not forget that he split up the holy trinity of Dallaglio/Hill/Back at the start of the Autumn Internationals in 2002, was almost superhuman against New Zealand that year and it was only injury (surprise surprise) that let Back regain his place in the side. It was Moody’s line out take in the 2003 World Cup final that led to that drop goal. Since that great day, Moody has been seen only sporadically.
Last season Moody regained his place in the England squad and then promptly broke an ankle. Upon his return he looked washed up, at one point Martin Corry outpaced him during the Barbarians match. Happily this season he has returned from yet more injury in fine form for Leicester and is looking something like his old self. His intensity and disregard for his own safety (that borders on the insane and accounts for his high injury rate) gives real drive to any side he plays for. At one point yesterday he hammered young Armitage so hard in a tackle that he forced a knock on, a telling moment in their personal dual.
The London Irish flanker is a different type of player. Short, squat, but deceptively powerful, his low centre of gravity makes him almost impossible to shift when he is over the ball. In this respect he reminds me of George Smith. He carries better than Moody, indeed he carries better than Steve Borthwick. His ability to punch holes in opposition fringe defences could in fact be his biggest value to England.
With England’s current injury situation, it might be Moody’s experience and dynamism that win him the day. Moody to start then with the pocket battleship to come off the bench. Or even how about this, Moody at 6, Armitage at 7? Who knows, If England get any more injuries, it just might happen.

Moody – 73/90
Armitage – 70/90

Who would be a coach eh? It is bad enough for us pub selectors to try and pick a team from the rubble of the EPS, so imagine how it must feel for Jonno as he sits through each weekend with chewed nails and winces with each injury report. No sooner does he write out a provisional team sheet than he has to screw it up and throw it away. The daily paper mountain from his waste bin alone is equivalent to the deforestation of an area the size of Wales.

Shaw, Vickery, Cipriani, Armitage D, Mears, Rees, Sheridan, Flutey, the list goes on and on. Grim stuff when trying to plan for battles with Australia, Argentina and the All Blacks on successive weekends.

But before we all start buying into the media gloom and campaigning for players to wear American Football-style helmets, let’s think positively.

England does have the largest player base of any union, or so we are told, so we should be in the best position to deal with a situation like the one currently faced. Certainly better equipped than say Georgia or Romania, who have to start thumbing through the schoolboy lists for replacements when their first player pulls up lame.

Also, we are not talking about the decimation of a settled squad on the eve of a World Cup, we are talking about a post-Lions Autumn series where, if we are honest, we are not expecting England to tear up trees anyway. It might even be a good thing to expose a wider number of fringe players to International rugby, players who otherwise would not have had the chance. Blood them now and it gives more choice for the 6 Nations and beyond.

Looked at another way, this situation provides Jonno with opportunity.

Injuries are good! Injuries are selection’s evolutionary force, the mutations that drive forward progress. They impose change, and change can be good. Coaches are forced to rethink. Game plans built around certain players become redundant when those players are not there, so existing tactics have to be adapted or new ones adopted. Team squads, especially predefined ones like the EPS, can become static gene pools. Injuries bring an influx of new players, and genetic diversity.

Fringe players who might never have been considered, suddenly get the chance to shine. And many do. In recent years, think of the likes of Armitage, Banahan, Strettle. All have taken their chance due to injuries to others.

Successful coaches are often lucky coaches who, due to injuries, find by chance a magic team chemistry and then are hailed as great selectors. Now is the time for Jonno and his fellow selectors to be brave, trust their intuition and take a punt on a new face. It just might pay off.

Lucky Injuries? – some examples where enforced change has galvanised a team:

 After losing to Portugal and drawing with Morocco in the 1986 football World Cup, England was in crises. Injuries and suspension forced the exclusion of team mainstays Robson and Wilkins.  In came Reid, Hodge and Stevens. The new formation flourished and England won their next two games 3-0 before going out to that handball.

 It still brings a lump to my throat watching James Robson tend to the stricken Rob Howley on the Living with Lions DVD. Hard to imagine the devastation Rob must have felt, the management as well. Still, no harm done to the team as in came Matt Dawson to dummy half of South Africa in the first test.

 In the 2003 6 Nations, England had been stodgy in their opening games. Worse, attacking force of nature Jason Robinson was injured for the visit of Italy to Twickenham. In stepped Josh Lewsey to full back. Lewsey was outstanding, and kept his place in the team, shunting Billy Whizz to the wing, from where he scored that famous try in Sidney the following November.

Unlucky injuries – where injury just sucks:

 To have stood any chance on the 2005 tour, it was a necessity for the Lions to have three key players: Dallaglio, Wilkinson and O’Driscoll, at full form and fitness. All three were crocked before the first test was finished.

 Any injury to Jonny Wilkinson since 2003.

As the nights draw in and the condensation starts to form on car windows in the morning, thoughts start to turn to getting the overcoats out of the back of the wardrobe and putting the lawn mower away for the year. Yes, Autumn is upon us, November is nearly here, and November means only one thing – Autumn Internationals at Twickenham! God’s way of telling us that the end of  Summer is not so bad.

Now back in the heady days of 2000-2002 this meant whacking the likes of Australia and New Zealand and hearing the ritual whingeing about it being the end of their season, not their first team etc etc. In recent times however it has been England hung, drawn and quartered at HQ. Last year was particularly painful and it was a harsh reality check for coach Jonno.

So as a new Investec Challenge series approaches, we amateur pundits get a chance to mull over the selection issues facing England and to choose our fantasy starting line up. All selections obviously restricted to the EPS, but injuries have given leeway for some promotions. Dom has beaten me a bit to the punch but I had already written this anyway.

 Back 3

With the injury to Armitage, England are shorn of their best fullback. For me, the man to replace him is Cipriani. Danny has endured a rough year and seems to be being punished by the England management but this year his form seems to have returned. You can’t keep ignoring his ability because his face doesn’t fit. He has played at 15 for Wasps with some success and there is nobody else really crying out for selection. I am a big Morgan fan but his form has dropped as Gloucester struggle, Abendanon is just too flaky, Foden is in danger of becoming a poor version of Austin Healey and I don’t go on Will Greenwood’s call for Monye to be slotted into fullback. I just think Jonno is too conservative and too stubborn to make this call.

On the wing I would have Banahan and Monye. I would not be unhappy with Cueto but I think Monye will be infinitely wiser for his Lion’s experience and Banahan is surely the next big thing (literally) for England. He might lack some nouse but he is a fast leaner, works hard, and is just too potent a weapon to ignore. Oh and watch this space on Varndell,

 Centres

Problems here, as there has been really since the Catt/Tindall/Greenwood days. Flood has never convinced as a 12. Geraghty is showing well though. He seems over his injuries and is the nearest thing we will get to having a Matt Gitaeu. Put him at inside centre outside Wilkinson and take the creative load off Jonny’s shoulders. I think England have always been at their best with two or three playmakers on the pitch. Think back to 2002 again, when Catt or even Austin Healey would slot in at 10 allowing Wilko to pop up where he wanted so the opposition never knew where the attack was coming from.

Outside centre is more of an issue. Tindall would be the dependable choice. Hipkiss keeps knocking on the door without really going through it. Tait has his fans but surely if he was going to be great he would have done it by now? I would love to see Tait really blossom and become a star of England’s midfield but I just have this feeling he is going to be a nearly man. Of the outsiders, Jon Clarke is starting to show what he is capable of at Northampton but it’s too soon for Waldouk at Wasps. My choice? Geraghty and Tindall.

 Halfback

The return of the demi-god anointed one Jonny Wilkinson has kept a permanent smile on my face since August. Assuming he can keep fit and play at least occasionally flat then England’s odds have tumbled. I just wince every time he goes into a tackle:{

Flood is still broken so the backup might be Myler, or will we see Cipriani brought back in from the cold in his favoured position?

Scrumhalf again is tricky as key contenders have either lost form or are playing in losing sides. Neither Care nor Ellis are impressing. Hodgson is the man in form but will Jonno see beyond his Leicester mucker? Simpson is tearing up trees at Wasps but he is unlikely to be thrown into the mix.

 Back row

England has the most serious selection problems across all three rows of the pack and there are no standout contenders anywhere (even Croft is having a Lion’s comedown). At number 8 Nick Easter is a worthy player who has his strengths but he is only there because nobody else has emerged to challenge him. If only he could gain 5 yards of pace he would be ideal. Dan Ward-Smith (the legend that never was) is coming back into the reckoning but Luke Narraway has gone backwards. If only Haskell could grow up and knuckle down he would be the ideal number 8. Jordan Crane is a  very good player but he just seems too similar to Easter and is not really developing his game at Leicester. He needs to go somewhere like Wasps or Irish. His goal kicking could be handy mind. So Easter it is, which means we need pace to compensate. Croft has blindside sewn up I would imagine. That leaves openside, a perennial problem for England. As dependable and destructive in the tackle as Joe Worsley is, he creates nothing at 7.  Armitage junior still has much to learn but offers potential. Rees is still hors de combat but is surely the future. Lewis Moody seems a shadow of his former self.

 Second row

Borthwick is Jonno’s man so get used to it naysayers, he aint going anywhere so you might as well hope he starts to perform on the International stage as he does sometimes at club level. He just needs to get nastier. Shaw will get the other berth if fit. Not a lot else coming up behind.

 Front row

Sheridan and Vickery/White seem to have the propping slots sewn up (Let’s just forget Vickery’s first Lions test debacle!) as this is the barest of England’s cupboards. Let’s hope the likes of Corbisiero push on. At hooker do you want the lineout stability and all round game of Mears at the price of a weak scrummage, or do you give Hartley his chance and tell him you are going to build the pack around him? Hartley surely has the size, aggression and burgeoning maturity we need.

 So, if all fit I would go:

 Cipriani

Monye

Tindall

Geraghty

Banahan

Wilko

Hodgson

Easter

Rees

Croft

Shaw

Borthwick

Vickery

Hartley

Sheridan

White

Mears

Kay

Worsley

Ellis

Flood

Tait

Lack of gamebreakers on the bench but enough fizz in that back line for anyone.

I think Jonno will go:

Morgan

Monye

Tindall

Flood

Cueto/Banahan

Wilko

Ellis

Easter

Worsley

Croft

Borthwick

Vickery

Mears

Sheridan