England could finish anywhere.

With a whole big pot of luck, they could win it.

With an average run of luck and injuries, they could finish somewhere between third and fifth.

With a poor run, they could conceivably finish last.

Wales, Ireland and France have all got to be favourites in their clashes against England, regardless of location – on recent form, they have to be.

The Scots are almost resurgent under Andy Robinson – a man who knows all too well the stale England gameplan and the inept team of coaches.

Even Italy are a team who must surely one day claim the scalp of this once great team.

Three or four defeats out of five is by no means out of the question.

Just reading Ian McGeechan’s autobiography Lion Man.

I recommend it.

McGeechan is so renowed for his coaching that it’s easy to overlook what a good player he was (and he stopped playing before I can remember watching much rugby).

However, there’s one passage where he describes his coaching philosphy:

"I believe that when you put new players in or a relatively new team together, you've got to be pretty direct in your coaching; you have to give them a framework, and a thinking and an understanding, because if you haven't got one mind, and one overall idea of what you are trying to do, that's when you fall between two stools. Once you've got that base right, once you've got all the basics, you can do anything; you can mix and match and that's where the decision-making and the talent shows, and then bring the best out of each other... 

And when all else fails, what's the plan? Go forward, and win the contact. If you do that, you will probably win."

Now how relevant is that to the past six years of England rugby?

As Graham says, it should be coaching bread and butter (shame Graham doesn’t write more articles for the blog).

After the latest team announcement, all I now need is for the RFU to sell the naming rights to Twickenham and my misery will be complete.

“And a warm welcome this afternoon to the Nike Rugby @ Twickenham Stadium to watch England vs the All Blacks.”

The selection of Erinle at inside centre guarantees that, apart from a couple of inside passes to Cueto hitting the line from fullback, the ball is going to get to 12 and no further.

To be fair, despite Geraghty at 12, in the past couple of games the ball wasn’t exactly being fired out wide but here is England’s colours nailed firmly to the flagpole.

Where are the game breakers?

We have the cutlasses but wherefore art the rapiers?

Not to mention Richie McCaw and the rest of the All Black backrow who are going to have a field day playing against three blindsides.

P.S. In light of RWC 2011, are we going to gain more from Shaw playing who will be 38 then or might giving Courteney Lawes some game time have been a more prudent forward-looking policy?

For the first 10 minutes of yesterday’s match, it was as if we had been set into a time machine, back six years. Here was Jonny Wilkinson, dropping a goal, kicking a penalty, ticking the scoreboard over, giving England an early lead, a lead from which they would press on and suffocate the opposition. But then, Jonny lined up a long range penalty from over halfway. This for 9-0. It sets sail, its on target! It hits the post. It misses. Suddenly, the spell is broken. We wake up. Australia wake up. They realise they are not playing England of 2003, but of 2009. Safe in that knowledge, they go down the field and score a try. They then dominate the entire second half and win comfortably, despite blowing at least three “open goal” try chances. And we England fans are left to scratch our heads and wonder just what the result means, and just where it leaves us. Was it a reasonable effort from a hastily assembled side and something to build on? Or was it a muddled catastrophe to rank alongside something from the Andy Robinson era? At first I thought it the former, but after watching the match again, I am leaning towards the latter.
Aside from the first 15 minutes, when England ruled the lineout, bossed the breakdown and had something like 65% possession, it was all Australia. England’s front five faded visibly with every minute the match went on, and hence there was no platform for the backs. If not for the heroic tackling of Moody and Wilkinson, the score would have been embarrassing.
England looked absolutely impotent in attack. Not once did we look like scoring a try. Not once. Australia on the other hand looked like arch wizards every time they had ball in hand.
Shane Geraghty had a shocking match. I think he deserves another go but I am now starting to fear that he is cut from the same cloth as Charlie Hodgson and that the biggest stage is a step too far for him. Matt Banahan looked totally lost and was unable to impose his size on proceedings, one tap back from a cross kick apart, and Ugo Monye had one of those games that make you think that maybe he is just someone very fit and very fast, but not actually any good at rugby.
Perhaps it is unfair to be harsh on these guys though, when in truth they had almost no quality ball to work with. The lack of snap and continuity from the forwards just heightens the doubts about John Wells as forwards coach. These doubts are now starting to be raised ever more loudly in the press, and for the first time, a major journalist has said that Martin Johnson should go. Over the top criticism? Maybe, but it is nothing compared to what will happen if England lose to the Pumas next week then ship another 30-40 points to the All Blacks the week after that. It is as if Andy Robinson/Brian Ashton had never left. Players have come and gone, Jonno might find to his cost that head coaches have as well, but somehow the Mike Ford/John Wells duo survive.
Perhaps we just have to accept what England are, a second division team fuelled by past glories to unrealistic expectations. And yet is it unrealistic to expect progress and competitiveness from the best funded team on the planet? There lies the problem for Jonno and the mysterious Rob Andrew. All the plans of the EPS, the acadamies, the long form agreement, mean nothing if the end result is clueless defeat like yesterday.

Leicester v Northampton
Game of the weekend. Similar to the Tiger’s match up last week against Irish. This week however the Tigers are at home, and they rarely lose at home. Big ask for Northampton. The loss of Hartley, Lawes, Geraghty and Foden will surely prove too much.
Maxamatic says: Leicester by 4
Guscott says: Leicester by 5-7

Dom says Leicester are used to having strength in depth at international time.
Leicester by 10.

Newcastle v Worcester
Newcastle shocked Bath last weekend and will be boosted by that result. Worcester slumped at home. Will be a typical mid-to-low table slugfest.
Maxamatic says: Newcastle by 6
Guscott says: Newcastle by 7-10

Dom says that Newcastle did well last week but I still fancy Worcester to claim a few scalps this season.
Draw.

One of the sub-plots of yesterday’s clash between London Irish and Leicester was the battle of the open sides. The old nutter Lewis Moody versus the young wrecking ball Steffon Armitage. One of them is almost certain to line up for England against Australia in two weeks time, so who is the best bet to fill the troublesome 7 jersey? This is a position that England have not really filled since Neil Back retired. Partly it has to be said, because Moody himself has been second only to Jonny Wilkinson in the “always injured” stakes. Moody in his prime was as good a backrow player as England has seen. Let’s not forget that he split up the holy trinity of Dallaglio/Hill/Back at the start of the Autumn Internationals in 2002, was almost superhuman against New Zealand that year and it was only injury (surprise surprise) that let Back regain his place in the side. It was Moody’s line out take in the 2003 World Cup final that led to that drop goal. Since that great day, Moody has been seen only sporadically.
Last season Moody regained his place in the England squad and then promptly broke an ankle. Upon his return he looked washed up, at one point Martin Corry outpaced him during the Barbarians match. Happily this season he has returned from yet more injury in fine form for Leicester and is looking something like his old self. His intensity and disregard for his own safety (that borders on the insane and accounts for his high injury rate) gives real drive to any side he plays for. At one point yesterday he hammered young Armitage so hard in a tackle that he forced a knock on, a telling moment in their personal dual.
The London Irish flanker is a different type of player. Short, squat, but deceptively powerful, his low centre of gravity makes him almost impossible to shift when he is over the ball. In this respect he reminds me of George Smith. He carries better than Moody, indeed he carries better than Steve Borthwick. His ability to punch holes in opposition fringe defences could in fact be his biggest value to England.
With England’s current injury situation, it might be Moody’s experience and dynamism that win him the day. Moody to start then with the pocket battleship to come off the bench. Or even how about this, Moody at 6, Armitage at 7? Who knows, If England get any more injuries, it just might happen.

Moody – 73/90
Armitage – 70/90

As the nights draw in and the condensation starts to form on car windows in the morning, thoughts start to turn to getting the overcoats out of the back of the wardrobe and putting the lawn mower away for the year. Yes, Autumn is upon us, November is nearly here, and November means only one thing – Autumn Internationals at Twickenham! God’s way of telling us that the end of  Summer is not so bad.

Now back in the heady days of 2000-2002 this meant whacking the likes of Australia and New Zealand and hearing the ritual whingeing about it being the end of their season, not their first team etc etc. In recent times however it has been England hung, drawn and quartered at HQ. Last year was particularly painful and it was a harsh reality check for coach Jonno.

So as a new Investec Challenge series approaches, we amateur pundits get a chance to mull over the selection issues facing England and to choose our fantasy starting line up. All selections obviously restricted to the EPS, but injuries have given leeway for some promotions. Dom has beaten me a bit to the punch but I had already written this anyway.

 Back 3

With the injury to Armitage, England are shorn of their best fullback. For me, the man to replace him is Cipriani. Danny has endured a rough year and seems to be being punished by the England management but this year his form seems to have returned. You can’t keep ignoring his ability because his face doesn’t fit. He has played at 15 for Wasps with some success and there is nobody else really crying out for selection. I am a big Morgan fan but his form has dropped as Gloucester struggle, Abendanon is just too flaky, Foden is in danger of becoming a poor version of Austin Healey and I don’t go on Will Greenwood’s call for Monye to be slotted into fullback. I just think Jonno is too conservative and too stubborn to make this call.

On the wing I would have Banahan and Monye. I would not be unhappy with Cueto but I think Monye will be infinitely wiser for his Lion’s experience and Banahan is surely the next big thing (literally) for England. He might lack some nouse but he is a fast leaner, works hard, and is just too potent a weapon to ignore. Oh and watch this space on Varndell,

 Centres

Problems here, as there has been really since the Catt/Tindall/Greenwood days. Flood has never convinced as a 12. Geraghty is showing well though. He seems over his injuries and is the nearest thing we will get to having a Matt Gitaeu. Put him at inside centre outside Wilkinson and take the creative load off Jonny’s shoulders. I think England have always been at their best with two or three playmakers on the pitch. Think back to 2002 again, when Catt or even Austin Healey would slot in at 10 allowing Wilko to pop up where he wanted so the opposition never knew where the attack was coming from.

Outside centre is more of an issue. Tindall would be the dependable choice. Hipkiss keeps knocking on the door without really going through it. Tait has his fans but surely if he was going to be great he would have done it by now? I would love to see Tait really blossom and become a star of England’s midfield but I just have this feeling he is going to be a nearly man. Of the outsiders, Jon Clarke is starting to show what he is capable of at Northampton but it’s too soon for Waldouk at Wasps. My choice? Geraghty and Tindall.

 Halfback

The return of the demi-god anointed one Jonny Wilkinson has kept a permanent smile on my face since August. Assuming he can keep fit and play at least occasionally flat then England’s odds have tumbled. I just wince every time he goes into a tackle:{

Flood is still broken so the backup might be Myler, or will we see Cipriani brought back in from the cold in his favoured position?

Scrumhalf again is tricky as key contenders have either lost form or are playing in losing sides. Neither Care nor Ellis are impressing. Hodgson is the man in form but will Jonno see beyond his Leicester mucker? Simpson is tearing up trees at Wasps but he is unlikely to be thrown into the mix.

 Back row

England has the most serious selection problems across all three rows of the pack and there are no standout contenders anywhere (even Croft is having a Lion’s comedown). At number 8 Nick Easter is a worthy player who has his strengths but he is only there because nobody else has emerged to challenge him. If only he could gain 5 yards of pace he would be ideal. Dan Ward-Smith (the legend that never was) is coming back into the reckoning but Luke Narraway has gone backwards. If only Haskell could grow up and knuckle down he would be the ideal number 8. Jordan Crane is a  very good player but he just seems too similar to Easter and is not really developing his game at Leicester. He needs to go somewhere like Wasps or Irish. His goal kicking could be handy mind. So Easter it is, which means we need pace to compensate. Croft has blindside sewn up I would imagine. That leaves openside, a perennial problem for England. As dependable and destructive in the tackle as Joe Worsley is, he creates nothing at 7.  Armitage junior still has much to learn but offers potential. Rees is still hors de combat but is surely the future. Lewis Moody seems a shadow of his former self.

 Second row

Borthwick is Jonno’s man so get used to it naysayers, he aint going anywhere so you might as well hope he starts to perform on the International stage as he does sometimes at club level. He just needs to get nastier. Shaw will get the other berth if fit. Not a lot else coming up behind.

 Front row

Sheridan and Vickery/White seem to have the propping slots sewn up (Let’s just forget Vickery’s first Lions test debacle!) as this is the barest of England’s cupboards. Let’s hope the likes of Corbisiero push on. At hooker do you want the lineout stability and all round game of Mears at the price of a weak scrummage, or do you give Hartley his chance and tell him you are going to build the pack around him? Hartley surely has the size, aggression and burgeoning maturity we need.

 So, if all fit I would go:

 Cipriani

Monye

Tindall

Geraghty

Banahan

Wilko

Hodgson

Easter

Rees

Croft

Shaw

Borthwick

Vickery

Hartley

Sheridan

White

Mears

Kay

Worsley

Ellis

Flood

Tait

Lack of gamebreakers on the bench but enough fizz in that back line for anyone.

I think Jonno will go:

Morgan

Monye

Tindall

Flood

Cueto/Banahan

Wilko

Ellis

Easter

Worsley

Croft

Borthwick

Vickery

Mears

Sheridan

Well, it has been months and months since I wrote anything on this site, real life work and a new baby has seen to that. Finally I have a spare moment and I must say how it is gratifying to see how esteemed journalists take the time to read and paraphrase this occasional blog. It seems Mr. Ackford agrees with me on England’s  lack of enforcers. Well done Paul, even if you are over 18 months behind this site!

Ackford September 2009

Maxamatic March 2008

Let’s reflect on the revised England squad:

Forwards: Tim Payne (Wasps), Andrew Sheridan (Sale), Matt Stevens (Bath), Phil Vickery (Wasps), George Chuter (Leicester), Dylan Hartley (Northampton), Lee Mears (Bath), Steve Borthwick (Saracens), Nick Kennedy (London Irish), Tom Palmer (Wasps), Simon Shaw (Wasps), Tom Croft (Leicester), James Haskell (Wasps), Lewis Moody (Leicester), Tom Rees (Wasps), Nick Easter (Harlequins), Luke Narraway (Gloucester).

Backs: Delon Armitage (London Irish), Olly Morgan (Gloucester), Mathew Tait (Sale), Mark Cueto (Sale), Paul Sackey (Wasps), Ugo Monye (Harlequins), Jamie Noon (Newcastle), Mike Tindall (Gloucester), Riki Flutey (Wasps), Shane Geraghty (London Irish), Danny Cipriani (Wasps), Toby Flood (Leicester), Danny Care (Harlequins), Harry Ellis (Leicester), Ben Foden (Northampton).

First of all, Johnno’s hands were tied.

From the agreement at the start of the season and the initial squad, injuries aside, Johnno could make five changes.

What a ridiculous importance that places on the first squad of the season.

But, but, but, let’s face it – the squad has an out of form look about it.

Forgetting about positions, if you were to pick on form, you’d play three full-backs (or at least men currently playing full-back for their clubs) – Morgan, Foden & Cueto.

But, surely you couldn’t drop man-of-the-autumn Delon Armitage. So that’s four full-backs then.

And then, none of the forwards makes a compelling case on current club form.

So… that’s four full-backs and no forwards.

So, picking on form, we have to accomodate four full-backs, Mike Tindall, and Shane Geraghty.
And no forwards.
Terrific.
And Twickenham tickets – what a bargain.

So, Tindall plays inside which doesn’t tend to suit him. One full-back steps up to outside centre and two go to the wing – Foden says he’s a scrum-half but the Sale and Northampton side selector’s disagree. Fair enough, let’s say he’s not a wing but most of the back three should be interchangeable.

Ummm,
15. Foden
14. Morgan
13. Armitage
12. Tindall
11. Cueto
10. Geraghty
9. Care
And 1-8 are trading on past reputations.

And a prop in the squad picked as a centre, consistently.

Not exactly reassuring.

Plus Jon Clarke of Northampton should have been in the squad.