Who would be a coach eh? It is bad enough for us pub selectors to try and pick a team from the rubble of the EPS, so imagine how it must feel for Jonno as he sits through each weekend with chewed nails and winces with each injury report. No sooner does he write out a provisional team sheet than he has to screw it up and throw it away. The daily paper mountain from his waste bin alone is equivalent to the deforestation of an area the size of Wales.

Shaw, Vickery, Cipriani, Armitage D, Mears, Rees, Sheridan, Flutey, the list goes on and on. Grim stuff when trying to plan for battles with Australia, Argentina and the All Blacks on successive weekends.

But before we all start buying into the media gloom and campaigning for players to wear American Football-style helmets, let’s think positively.

England does have the largest player base of any union, or so we are told, so we should be in the best position to deal with a situation like the one currently faced. Certainly better equipped than say Georgia or Romania, who have to start thumbing through the schoolboy lists for replacements when their first player pulls up lame.

Also, we are not talking about the decimation of a settled squad on the eve of a World Cup, we are talking about a post-Lions Autumn series where, if we are honest, we are not expecting England to tear up trees anyway. It might even be a good thing to expose a wider number of fringe players to International rugby, players who otherwise would not have had the chance. Blood them now and it gives more choice for the 6 Nations and beyond.

Looked at another way, this situation provides Jonno with opportunity.

Injuries are good! Injuries are selection’s evolutionary force, the mutations that drive forward progress. They impose change, and change can be good. Coaches are forced to rethink. Game plans built around certain players become redundant when those players are not there, so existing tactics have to be adapted or new ones adopted. Team squads, especially predefined ones like the EPS, can become static gene pools. Injuries bring an influx of new players, and genetic diversity.

Fringe players who might never have been considered, suddenly get the chance to shine. And many do. In recent years, think of the likes of Armitage, Banahan, Strettle. All have taken their chance due to injuries to others.

Successful coaches are often lucky coaches who, due to injuries, find by chance a magic team chemistry and then are hailed as great selectors. Now is the time for Jonno and his fellow selectors to be brave, trust their intuition and take a punt on a new face. It just might pay off.

Lucky Injuries? – some examples where enforced change has galvanised a team:

 After losing to Portugal and drawing with Morocco in the 1986 football World Cup, England was in crises. Injuries and suspension forced the exclusion of team mainstays Robson and Wilkins.  In came Reid, Hodge and Stevens. The new formation flourished and England won their next two games 3-0 before going out to that handball.

 It still brings a lump to my throat watching James Robson tend to the stricken Rob Howley on the Living with Lions DVD. Hard to imagine the devastation Rob must have felt, the management as well. Still, no harm done to the team as in came Matt Dawson to dummy half of South Africa in the first test.

 In the 2003 6 Nations, England had been stodgy in their opening games. Worse, attacking force of nature Jason Robinson was injured for the visit of Italy to Twickenham. In stepped Josh Lewsey to full back. Lewsey was outstanding, and kept his place in the team, shunting Billy Whizz to the wing, from where he scored that famous try in Sidney the following November.

Unlucky injuries – where injury just sucks:

 To have stood any chance on the 2005 tour, it was a necessity for the Lions to have three key players: Dallaglio, Wilkinson and O’Driscoll, at full form and fitness. All three were crocked before the first test was finished.

 Any injury to Jonny Wilkinson since 2003.

SO, only three years early, here is the draw for the 2011 Rugby Union World Cup:

Pool A – New Zealand, France, Tonga, Americas 1, Asia 1

Pool B – Argentina, England, Scotland, Europe 1, play-off winner

Pool C – Australia, Ireland, Italy, Europe 2, Americas 2

Pool D – South Africa, Wales, Fiji, Oceania 1, Africa 1

Now, on the surface that looks fine and dandy for England, escaping having to face one of the Tri-Nations teams after the dismal Autumn annihilation. I think it is a bit tricky. Very bad luck to draw Scotland, one of the third-tier nations. The Scots always, always raise their game against the old enemy. They will be targeting their pool match against England  from this point onwards.  Argentina might actually be the softer of the two games. I always thought they were slightly overrated last year, despite their third place World Cup finish. If I was a betting man I would predict their fortunes taking a downward trajectory in the next three years. Let’s hope England’s fortunes improve as failing to top the pool would see almost certain 1/4 final elimination at the hands of probably New Zealand.

The All Blacks are probably relieved to see their nemisis France in Pool A. New Zealand have a much better chance of beating them here, and a loss is not as catastrophic as the two previous semi-final upsets.

Elsewhere Wales must be distraught to see their own nemisis, Fiji, alongside Cup holders South Africa. Ireland must fancy their chances of getting past Australia and Italy. The lack of depth in the game makes it unlikely that any of the other third-tier nations or qualifiers will make it out of the Pool stages.

Before the 6N started one of the more popular rugby forums was running a thread titled, “Your tournament hopes and fears”. It asked fans to state their ideal tournament, and their nightmare scenario.
My ideal realistic outcome was to lose no more than one match and to finish no worse than second. My nightmare scenario was to lose to Wales in the opener then to lose possibly two more matches, finishing fourth or even fifth.
As the 2008 championship now recedes already rapidly behind us, aspects of my worst and best scenarios both came to pass. We did lose to Wales, but we did come second. A curate’s egg then. Well, more like a curate’s battery egg farm actually.
The fact that England managed to sneak into the runners up spot is astonishing and frankly an indictment of the rest of the teams (Wales apart). It will no doubt be used by the urbane Mr. Andrew as evidence that England are “improving”, “moving to where we want to be”, “beginning to play the type of rugby we are know we are capable of” or some such. Any such cant however should be challenged in the strongest terms as if it is used to justify the status quo then it is the worst result possible for England.
What seems obvious is that things cannot remain as they are. The rumours of dressing room unrest are again surfacing and the knives are now well and truly out for Mr. Ashton and, in some quarters, Mr. Andrew. If Ashton et al survive the post 6N “review” (Mr. Andrew does seem fond of these exhaustive reviews doesn’t he?) they would surely not survive two 60 point maulings by New Zealand in June.
So how did England lurch from disaster to triumph back to disaster then to their best finish since 2003?
Wales (Lost 19-26)
Disaster. Total. Comfortable if not secure at half time, mashed at full time. I did not think Wales played that badly, or England that well, in the first half. One more score would probably have killed the game off. But England could not find that score. Disappointing injuries to the sick notes Moody and Strettle (as well as the nearly man that never was Rees) certainly unsettled England. Given that you would have thought 10-man rugby in the second half was the order of the day, whose brainwave was it to put Kay in the back row and then run everything from everywhere? Where was the direction from the coaches? Where was the leadership from key players? Unbelievable. Glad I did not buy tickets to this one.

Italy (Won 19-23)
Appalling again. One bit of flukey skill for Sackey’s try and that was it. Italy should have won and would have won if they possessed a half decent halfback. Worrying times.

France (Won 13-24)
World Cup semi final revisited. England revert to type and go large on defence and decent forward play. And France commit rugby suicide. Seriously, someone should tell Lievremont that the great French teams of the past had abundant running flair but they also had some of the nastiest, most physical forwards ever to play the game. One moment near the end summed it up for me. Five minutes left, France field a kick in their 22. Surely they will kick downfield as far as they can to get position? No, they run it, knock on and cede possession from which England score the clinching try! I was strangely muted after this game. Happy yes, but not as delighted as the drunken fans around me. It was like getting a credit card to pay off an overdraft.

Scotland (Lost 15-9)
What can one say? The worst game I have ever seen England play. In 30 years. Not even the debacles in the mid 80s were this bad. Following as it did on the heels of Dannygate, this was a bitter pill to swallow. Ashton was now in siege mode. Lose to Ireland and he would be out on his a**e. Credit to Scotland though for again being our Achilles heel.

Ireland (Won 33-10)
Dom has reviewed this on this site. Not much to add. Danny showed the way forward ( and you gotta love his f*****g interview style!) but it was just too little too late and left you just so angry at what might have been. If we could play so poorly so often and still come second? What would we be like if we actually had a clue?
 

Firstly, no sour grapes, congratulations to Wales on a well deserved Grand Slam. Who would have thought just a few months ago when they bombed out of the World Cup to Fiji that here they would be having swept all in the 6N before them. Who would believe as well that they would have completed the feat twice in 4 years, compared to England’s shocking record in that period? In some ways this Slam was similar to the one in 2005, both started with victories over England and Wales growing in stature from that point, but this was vintage was a better achievement.

It could all have been so different had England not gone totally AWOL for twenty minutes in that first match, but ifs and buts feed the regrets of bitterness and England have nobody save themselves to blame. Perhaps seeing the achievements of the men in red will stir the men in white to greater deeds and the “old farts” in the RFU to action…. if only eh?

And why not? He has just helped coach them to a Slam in his first season in charge, and is hailed as a demi-god in the principality (instead of being offered a derisory job such as Saxons coach…). It seems he is happy to stay where he is until 2010!! This alone should be enough to see Mr. Rob Andrew sent packing from his cozy £400K job as…as… whatever he does.

OddsChecker

Wales v Ireland – Currently no standout value in the market. I’m looking at Wales at about 6/4. Wales have shown more quality than Ireland in recent performances. With doubts over Dempsey and Murphy and with Gatland having a psychological advantage over O’Sullivan, I fancy Wales’ chances. But 6/4 doesn’t meet my criteria of value. I think it will be a close one though so the in-game betting might offer some chances. Ireland are definitely overvalued at 4/6.

England v Scotland – England should account for Scotland but as soon as you rule out Scotland, you’re in trouble. Bear in mind that this English team can only string together a performance for the first half at best. There’s no point looking for value in the English odds. Most of the markets are hovering at around 3s to 4s on a Scotland victory. Betfair are offering nearly 5/1 which might be worth a nibble. The Edinburgh weather forecast is for a fair day with a nip in the air. Look for value backing Scotland in in-game betting after England have a 3 to 5 point lead.

France vs Italy – France have only got the Championship to play for – how much motivation will that be. Lievremont keeps chopping and changing. Italy at 15/1 on Betfair (10/1 elsewhere) is tempting but with Mauro Bergamasco out, a surprise is probably beyond them.