Weekend Predictions, Challenge Guscott!

Some really hard games to call this weekend, complicated further by International call ups. How will the teams who lose their star Internationals fair? Will the other clubs benefit? I don’t have a clue. Will Dom add his predictions? Will our predictions be better than Jerry Guscott’s?

Sale v Gloucester
Gloucester look a team in bits. If not for Leeds they would be candidates for the drop. Tindall is playing for an England place. Sale are not exactly purring along either, but home advantage on a friday night should see them home.
Maxamatic says: Sale by 9
Guscott says: Sale by 6-9

Dom says Sale seem to play more Friday nights than anyone else. Gloucester must fire soon or heads will roll. Not this weekend though, definitely home advantage.
Sale by 7.

Bath v Saracens
What happened to Bath last weekend? They are only less slightly in bits than Gloucester. They lose the two Bs for this match, Bell and Banahan. Barnes has been released to play. Sarries lose skipper Borthwick. Another home defeat would be intolerable for Bath.
Maxamatic says: Saracens by 2
Guscott says: Bath by 7

Dom says Saracens are in a mean vein of form and Bath are hopeless.
Saracens by more than 10.

Harlequins v London Irish
Tough one this. Harlequins had a good win last week, but Irish put away Leicester. Neither side lose too many players to call ups but the injury to Easter will hurt Quins.
Maxamatic says: London Irish by 8
Guscott says: London Irish by 3-5

Dom says Harlequins are going to give some a thumping soon but not these canny Irish.
Irish by 12.

Leicester v Northampton
Game of the weekend. Similar to the Tiger’s match up last week against Irish. This week however the Tigers are at home, and they rarely lose at home. Big ask for Northampton. The loss of Hartley, Lawes, Geraghty and Foden will surely prove too much.
Maxamatic says: Leicester by 4
Guscott says: Leicester by 5-7

Dom says Leicester are used to having strength in depth at international time.
Leicester by 10.

Newcastle v Worcester
Newcastle shocked Bath last weekend and will be boosted by that result. Worcester slumped at home. Will be a typical mid-to-low table slugfest.
Maxamatic says: Newcastle by 6
Guscott says: Newcastle by 7-10

Dom says that Newcastle did well last week but I still fancy Worcester to claim a few scalps this season.
Draw.

Wasps v Leeds
Despite Leed’s improved showing last weekend, surely even the most one eyed Tykes fan can only see Wasps handing out a hiding here?
Maxamatic says: Wasps by 20
Guscott says: Wasps by 10

Dom says Leeds are going to get stung.
Wasps by 15.

 

Elite Squad – four released

Four released from the elite squad.

Armitage, Blaze, Kay and Strettle have been returned to their clubs.

Surprise over Armitage who is the only genuine 7 in the squad (come on Lewis, who are you kidding?).

And very surprised over Strettle who seems to operate in a different space and time dimension to other eligible English wings but Monye is the form player in the premiership and Banahan has been playing well.

I like the idea of two from Strettle, Monye and Banahan along with a genuine 15 like Foden.

What clues does this give us to the team for the Aussies on Nov 7?
I’d love to see Steve Thompson cap his return with a starting berth but I suspect it will be Hartley.
I really hope that Worseley is not 8 or 7.
I’d like to see Foden given his chance at 7.
I suspect that Tindall will be given a starting berth over Hipkiss who seems to be perenially underrated.
With the requirement to have two props on the substitutes bench

15. Foden / Cueto / Tait
14. Monye
13. Tindall / Hipkiss
12. Geraghty
11. Banahan
10. Wilko
9. Care
8. Crane / Worseley
7. Moody / Worseley
6. Croft
5. Deacon
4. Borthwick
3. Wilson
2. Thompson / Hartley
1. Payne

Bench: Barnes, Bell, Hartley/Thompson, Haskell / Worsley, Haskell / Worseley / Lawes, Foden/Hodgson, Tait/Cueto

Elite Squad

England’s revised elite player squad:

Forwards:

Steffon Armitage (London Irish), David Barnes (Bath Rugby), Duncan Bell (Bath Rugby), Richard Blaze (Leicester Tigers), Steve Borthwick (Saracens, captain), George Chuter (Leicester Tigers), Jordan Crane (Leicester Tigers), Tom Croft (Leicester Tigers), Louis Deacon (Leicester Tigers), Dylan Hartley (Northampton Saints), James Haskell (Stade Francais), Ben Kay (Leicester Tigers), Courtney Lawes (Northampton Saints), Lewis Moody (Leicester Tigers), Tim Payne (London Wasps), Steve Thompson (CA Brive), David Wilson (Bath Rugby), Joe Worsley (London Wasps).

Backs:

Matt Banahan (Bath Rugby), Danny Care (Harlequins), Mark Cueto (Sale Sharks), Ben Foden (Northampton Saints), Shane Geraghty (Northampton Saints), Andy Goode (CA Brive), Dan Hipkiss (Leicester Tigers), Paul Hodgson (London Irish), Ugo Monye (Harlequins), David Strettle (Harlequins), Mathew Tait (Sale Sharks), Mike Tindall (Gloucester Rugby), Richard Wigglesworth (Sale Sharks), Jonny Wilkinson (Toulon).

Wigglesworth over Wasps’s Simpson!

Still no place for Northampton’s Jon Clarke.

I like the addition of Blaze and Lawes but Barnes and Bell?

We’ve a fine crop of blind-sides and blind-sides who think they can play open but only one genuine 7 and one 8 – Armitage & Crane…

What no Kennedy?

Thoughts?

Revised England Elite Player Squad

Forwards:

Steffon Armitage (London Irish), David Barnes (Bath Rugby), Duncan Bell (Bath Rugby), Richard Blaze (Leicester Tigers), Steve Borthwick (Saracens, captain), George Chuter (Leicester Tigers), Jordan Crane (Leicester Tigers), Tom Croft (Leicester Tigers), Louis Deacon (Leicester Tigers), Dylan Hartley (Northampton Saints), James Haskell (Stade Francais), Ben Kay (Leicester Tigers), Courtney Lawes (Northampton Saints), Lewis Moody (Leicester Tigers), Tim Payne (London Wasps), Steve Thompson (CA Brive), David Wilson (Bath Rugby), Joe Worsley (London Wasps).

Backs:

Matt Banahan (Bath Rugby), Danny Care (Harlequins), Mark Cueto (Sale Sharks), Ben Foden (Northampton Saints), Shane Geraghty (Northampton Saints), Andy Goode (CA Brive), Dan Hipkiss (Leicester Tigers), Paul Hodgson (London Irish), Ugo Monye (Harlequins), David Strettle (Harlequins), Mathew Tait (Sale Sharks), Mike Tindall (Gloucester Rugby), Richard Wigglesworth (Sale Sharks), Jonny Wilkinson (Toulon).

Moody the Man Again?

One of the sub-plots of yesterday’s clash between London Irish and Leicester was the battle of the open sides. The old nutter Lewis Moody versus the young wrecking ball Steffon Armitage. One of them is almost certain to line up for England against Australia in two weeks time, so who is the best bet to fill the troublesome 7 jersey? This is a position that England have not really filled since Neil Back retired. Partly it has to be said, because Moody himself has been second only to Jonny Wilkinson in the “always injured” stakes. Moody in his prime was as good a backrow player as England has seen. Let’s not forget that he split up the holy trinity of Dallaglio/Hill/Back at the start of the Autumn Internationals in 2002, was almost superhuman against New Zealand that year and it was only injury (surprise surprise) that let Back regain his place in the side. It was Moody’s line out take in the 2003 World Cup final that led to that drop goal. Since that great day, Moody has been seen only sporadically.
Last season Moody regained his place in the England squad and then promptly broke an ankle. Upon his return he looked washed up, at one point Martin Corry outpaced him during the Barbarians match. Happily this season he has returned from yet more injury in fine form for Leicester and is looking something like his old self. His intensity and disregard for his own safety (that borders on the insane and accounts for his high injury rate) gives real drive to any side he plays for. At one point yesterday he hammered young Armitage so hard in a tackle that he forced a knock on, a telling moment in their personal dual.
The London Irish flanker is a different type of player. Short, squat, but deceptively powerful, his low centre of gravity makes him almost impossible to shift when he is over the ball. In this respect he reminds me of George Smith. He carries better than Moody, indeed he carries better than Steve Borthwick. His ability to punch holes in opposition fringe defences could in fact be his biggest value to England.
With England’s current injury situation, it might be Moody’s experience and dynamism that win him the day. Moody to start then with the pocket battleship to come off the bench. Or even how about this, Moody at 6, Armitage at 7? Who knows, If England get any more injuries, it just might happen.

How they stack up
Experience
Moody – 10
Been there, done it. Two World Cup finals says it all.
Armitage – 7
Still early days in professional terms. Test in Argentina will have served him well.

Tackling
Moody – 9
Not subtle, not a wrecking ball like Worsley, but would tackle a rhino.
Armitage – 8
Does everything asked off him, rarely gets bounced.

Carrying
Moody – 8
Not the best part of his game, more of a linkman.
Armitage – 9
Like a mini bulldozer with ball in hand.

Line out
Moody – 8
An extra option at the tail.
Armitage – 6
What do you expect from someone 5’9”?

Pace
Moody – 7
Not what it was. Used to be a real flyer.
Armitage – 8
Fairly rapid for a short bloke.

Breakdown
Moody – 8
Brilliant at diving on loose ball but lacks subtlety at breakdown, perhaps because he is really a better 6.
Armitage – 8
Barrel-like body and immense upper body strength make him a real nuisance. Still learning.

Bravery and Commitment
Moody – 10
This guy is borderline insane. Sometimes you have to wince when watching him.
Armitage – 9
Never seen him take a backward step yet.

Penalty machine?
Moody – 6
Still gives away too many penalties.
Armitage – 8
Not bad for an openside. Maybe needs to cheat more.

Rugby Brain
Moody – 7
Not perhaps the greatest reader of a game there has ever been. Relies more on being a perpetual motion machine but capable of the deftest of offloads.
Armitage – 7
Always seems to be involved so must be fairly shrewd.

Moody – 73/90
Armitage – 70/90

GP Weekend Predictions Part 2

Following on from Dom’s recent steller prediction performance (and his contribution below) I have decided to open myself to ridicule by offering my own predictions for the weekend. No doubt in the process proving why I don’t gamble and Dom does. And why I only write tripe on a blog as opposed to writing tripe and being handsomely paid for it (a la Barnesy…!)

Bath v Newcastle:  Bath will be smarting after throwing away victory against Stade in the Heineken (possibly the dumbest two minutes of rugby ever played?). Newcastle are not the easy beats of old but Bath at the Rec are a tough proposition – Bath by 10.

Gloucester v Wasps: Wasps are a far cry from the clueless team of last season. Glaws are still struggling for  identity after Dean Ryan and come off the back of a right humping in the Heineken. More misery for Gloucester -  Wasps by 7.

London Irish v Leicester: Game of the weekend. Sparkling Irish against dullish but oh so effective Tigers. Like Jimmy White against Cliff Thorburn. Cliff Thorburn to grind it out – Tigers by 3.

Northampton v Sale: Sale are in a bit of trouble. Losing Sheridan will have hit them hard. A trip to high flying Saints is not what they need – Northampton by 9.

Worcester v Harlequins: Quins are battling to reassert themselves after the Summer scandal. Not entirely successfully.To make things harder they have to do without skipper Will Skinner for this trip. Worcester at home are a very difficult team to beat. I back Worcester’s abrasive pack to provide the platform for victory in a bruising encounter. Worcester by 4.

Saracens v Leeds: Saracens are tootling along nicely and will surely inflict more pain on Neil Back’s beleagured drop favourites. South Afracens by 18.

Weekend Preview 23/10

SATURDAY

Bath v Newcastle

This season we’re still waiting for the West Country clubs to hit their straps but Newcastle aren’t in the best of form either.

Can Newcastle break their duck at the Rec?

I doubt it.

There’s really not much to say about these clubs and this match.

Verdict: Bath to kick start their season by 12.

Gloucester v Wasps

Gloucester flew out of the blocks in the opening game of the season against Bath but have since lost their way.

Wasps have had an unusually strong start to the season – they usually like to finish late – but it will be interesting to see how they fare without Cipriani. On his day, Walder can be a game winner but too often he’s off form..

Verdict: Gloucester to join Bath to make it a good day out West – by 5.

London Irish v Leicester

Will this be the battle of the contenders for the England 7 shirt? Armitage vs Moody.

Irish are right up near the top of the table just behind Saracens whilst Leicester find themselves in an unusual mid-table position.

Irish are on form and have firepower to burn in the backs.

Leicester have injuries and the Madejski is a hard place to go and win but the Midlands outfit know how to tough it out.

Verdict: Leicester by 3

Northampton v Sale

Northampton have got a buzz about them – they’re going places especially with the players they’ve got all along the backline. Geraghty is on fire, Clarke for me has the makings of a new Greenwood, and then there’s the back three who are the match of anyone in the Premiership.

This might be the time for a Charlie Hodgson special but the players who left last season have just left too big a hole.

Verdict: Northampton by 10.

Worcester v Harlequins

There are so many teams with an imperious looking back three, none more so that these teams.

With Miles Benjamin, Marcel Garvey and Chris Latham, Worcester have one of the most exciting back threes in the Premiership.
So what say Harlequins with Brown, Strettle and Monye, possibly the player of the season so far.

I fancy Worcester to take some scalps this season – especially with Ruddock and Sanderson at the wheel – but at some point Harlequins are going to turn around and give someone a pounding.Verdict: Worcester to win six points.

Verdict: Harlequins by 8

SUNDAY

Saracens v Leeds

It’s a question of how much?

Leeds aren’t going to get their first win of the season playing at the home of the streetwise, street tough Saracens.

Verdict: Saracens by 20

England Injuries – Crisis or Blessing?

Who would be a coach eh? It is bad enough for us pub selectors to try and pick a team from the rubble of the EPS, so imagine how it must feel for Jonno as he sits through each weekend with chewed nails and winces with each injury report. No sooner does he write out a provisional team sheet than he has to screw it up and throw it away. The daily paper mountain from his waste bin alone is equivalent to the deforestation of an area the size of Wales.

Shaw, Vickery, Cipriani, Armitage D, Mears, Rees, Sheridan, Flutey, the list goes on and on. Grim stuff when trying to plan for battles with Australia, Argentina and the All Blacks on successive weekends.

But before we all start buying into the media gloom and campaigning for players to wear American Football-style helmets, let’s think positively.

England does have the largest player base of any union, or so we are told, so we should be in the best position to deal with a situation like the one currently faced. Certainly better equipped than say Georgia or Romania, who have to start thumbing through the schoolboy lists for replacements when their first player pulls up lame.

Also, we are not talking about the decimation of a settled squad on the eve of a World Cup, we are talking about a post-Lions Autumn series where, if we are honest, we are not expecting England to tear up trees anyway. It might even be a good thing to expose a wider number of fringe players to International rugby, players who otherwise would not have had the chance. Blood them now and it gives more choice for the 6 Nations and beyond.

Looked at another way, this situation provides Jonno with opportunity.

Injuries are good! Injuries are selection’s evolutionary force, the mutations that drive forward progress. They impose change, and change can be good. Coaches are forced to rethink. Game plans built around certain players become redundant when those players are not there, so existing tactics have to be adapted or new ones adopted. Team squads, especially predefined ones like the EPS, can become static gene pools. Injuries bring an influx of new players, and genetic diversity.

Fringe players who might never have been considered, suddenly get the chance to shine. And many do. In recent years, think of the likes of Armitage, Banahan, Strettle. All have taken their chance due to injuries to others.

Successful coaches are often lucky coaches who, due to injuries, find by chance a magic team chemistry and then are hailed as great selectors. Now is the time for Jonno and his fellow selectors to be brave, trust their intuition and take a punt on a new face. It just might pay off.

 

Lucky Injuries? – some examples where enforced change has galvanised a team:

 After losing to Portugal and drawing with Morocco in the 1986 football World Cup, England was in crises. Injuries and suspension forced the exclusion of team mainstays Robson and Wilkins.  In came Reid, Hodge and Stevens. The new formation flourished and England won their next two games 3-0 before going out to that handball.

 It still brings a lump to my throat watching James Robson tend to the stricken Rob Howley on the Living with Lions DVD. Hard to imagine the devastation Rob must have felt, the management as well. Still, no harm done to the team as in came Matt Dawson to dummy half of South Africa in the first test.

 In the 2003 6 Nations, England had been stodgy in their opening games. Worse, attacking force of nature Jason Robinson was injured for the visit of Italy to Twickenham. In stepped Josh Lewsey to full back. Lewsey was outstanding, and kept his place in the team, shunting Billy Whizz to the wing, from where he scored that famous try in Sidney the following November.

 

Unlucky injuries – where injury just sucks:

 To have stood any chance on the 2005 tour, it was a necessity for the Lions to have three key players: Dallaglio, Wilkinson and O’Driscoll, at full form and fitness. All three were crocked before the first test was finished.

 Any injury to Jonny Wilkinson since 2003.

Game plans

If you’ve not seen the great game plan flowcharts over @ Blood and Mud, then take a gander at:

• Andy Goode
• Jonny Wilkinson
• Andy Powell
• Lewis Moody

Weekend Review 01/10

Friday
Sale vs London Irish
We said Sale by 3, Results said Irish by 3.

Saturday
Leicester vs Worcester
We said Leicester by 12, Results said Leicester by 5.

Harlequins vs Bath
We said Harlequins by 2, Results said Harlequins by 2.

Sunday
Leeds vs Gloucester
We said Gloucester by 14, Results said Gloucester by 16.

Newcastle vs Saracens
We said Saracens by 10, Results said Saracens by 7.

Wasps vs Northampton
We saidWasps by 5, Results said Wasps by 5.